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October 12, 2006
Bellweathers
For those of you who've read any of my past posts, you know that I was very optimistic leading into the 2004 Elections. I was on the ground. I could FEEL that we were going to win. Well...yeah...we all know how THAT turned out. This year, I have built up a cynical outer shell of pure pessimism. (WARNING: MIXED METAPHOR AHEAD!) I have maintained my quintessential membership in Red Sox nation - utterly convinced that we're going to lose until it appears in reach, only to have Lucy pull the Football away at the last second! (End Mixed Metaphor).
Being that I live in the world of Campaign Finance, I've decided that my bellweathers this year would be... Republican Fundraising. July to Present has seen Death, Sex, and of course Macaca. The numbers come out this weekend, though we probably won't see anything from the Senate until Monday or Tuesday. But my point is this - if the Republican's fundraising has not seen any major move in either direction, we're screwed. Otherwise, are they dumping money trying to retain seats or cutting off candidates because they don't think they can win anymore?
Who am I looking at? Senate Side - Allen, Dewine, Corker, and Chaffee. House Side - Shays, Drake, and (Count) Chocola. I will take a look at their respective numbers when they become available, and from that we can get a good idea of where we're going.
One thing this cycle is for sure - the Conservative base is going to be a lot harder to get out to the polls this time, and even the wedge issues of ignorance won't be the same driving force it was before.
Certainly there are some fantastic looking pickup opportunities out there. I have a lot of friends who are very seasoned professional who are quite optimistic about their respective races. I'm optimistic enough to think that we're not going to have a net loss of seats this time - there isn't a Texas jerrymander. And while I can compartmentalize enough to say that "Oh - we'll win this seat, and this one too!" I won't allow myself to think there might be a big picture change about to happen. That's what I did in 2004, and when we lost it was absolutely devestating. For one thing, I can't afford the bender I went on last time.
I am hoping for the best, but I've learned enough to prepare myself for the worst.
Posted by MikeSager at October 12, 2006 8:00 AM
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Comments
Hopeufully this election we will be able to have one big blow out night CELEBRATING...instead of being driven to a bender....
One thing is clear...IF the elections don't turn it around this time NO ONE can say the elections are honest, reliabel, or democratic....ALL innocense will be lost for good.
Buaa...Buaa
Posted by: mosquito at October 12, 2006 2:07 PM
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